Voting decreased in the second phase as well, BJP or SP alliance, whose game will be spoiled?



On Monday, 62.52 percent voting was held in 55 seats of the second phase of the Uttar Pradesh assembly elections. Whereas in the 2017 election, 65.53 percent voting was done. In this way, this time there has been three percent less voting. When there was an increase in voting in the 2017 elections, the BJP had got the political advantage of it. At the same time, SP and BSP had to suffer. The Fortune of 586 candidates, who landed on 55 seats in 9 districts of the second phase of the Uttar Pradesh Assembly elections, has been imprisoned in the EVMs. In the second phase on Monday, voters showed less enthusiasm than last time.




According to the Election Commission, the turnout in the second round of 55 seats stood at 62.52 per cent, compared to 65.53 per cent in the 2017 assembly elections.3% less voting In the second phase, if we look at the voting trend of Muslim belt of western UP and Rohilkhand area, then three percent voting has decreased from the last election. However, in 2012, 65.17 percent voting was done in these 55 seats. There was an increase of 0.36 per cent in voting in 2017 as compared to 2012. In the last elections, due to the increase in the vote percentage of these 55 seats, the BJP had benefited and the opposition parties had lost. In 2017, BJP candidates had won 38 out of these 55 seats, while SP got 15 and Congress got two seats. At the same time, in the 2012 elections, SP had won 40 seats, while BSP got 8, BJP got 4 and Congress got 3 seats. In this way, in 2017, BJP got the advantage of 34 seats, then the SP had to face the loss of 25, Congress 1 and BSP 8 seats.





At the same time, in the 2007 assembly elections, 49.56 percent voting was done in these 55 seats, in which BSP got 35, SP 11, BJP 7 and Congress got 2 seats. In the 2012 elections, the voter turnout increased by 11 percent, while the SP gained 29 seats and the BSP lost 35 seats. It is clear from the voting of the last three elections that if the opposition has benefited from the increase in the voting percentage, then the ruling party has been at a loss. Voting in Muslim majority seats In the second phase, more than 72 percent polling was recorded in Amroha district, while the lowest was 59.69 percent in Shahjahanpur district. At the same time, the highest 75.78 percent voting in the assembly seats took place in Behat of Saharanpur. In Nakud, 75.50 percent votes were cast. In Amroha's Naugawan Sadat 74.17 percent votes were cast and in Hasanpur 73.58 percent votes were cast. In this way, voting has been seen more in Muslim-majority assembly seats.



BJP's performance has been unstable The BJP's performance in the 55 assembly seats of Uttar Pradesh that went to polls on Monday has been unstable for three elections. In the 2017 Lok Sabha elections, 38 seats were won, while in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP got an edge in 27 seats out of these 55 assembly seats, while the SP and BSP got the lead in 28 seats. Muslim voter in conclusive role Muslim voters have been important in the second phase of the UP assembly elections. If we look at the census data, there are nine seats where the number of Muslims is more than 50 percent. Some of the seats with Muslim majority include Rampur, Sambhal, Amroha, Chamraua and Nagina. Apart from this, there are 14 seats where the participation of Muslim voters is 40 to 50 percent. In about two dozen assembly constituencies, Muslim voters do. In such a situation, the message of voting in Muslim-majority seats can be clearly understood.According to a study by the Center for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS), in 2017 around 55 per cent Muslims voted in favor of the SP.




At the same time, in this election, the Muslim voter is seen standing stronger than last time. The vote share of SP in this area was highest last time as compared to other parts of the state. The combined vote share of the SP-Congress stood at 34 percent while the BJP got close to 38 per cent in this region.The BJP had won 38 out of 55 seats in the last assembly elections. This time it is contesting on 54 seats and its ally Apna Dal (S) is contesting on one seat. In 25 assembly seats, their candidates have changed. The tickets of 10 candidates who won last time were cut, out of which three MLAs had left the party. In the second phase of 55 seats, 52 SP candidates and 3 RLD candidates were in the riot . The SP-RLD alliance has changed its candidates in 34 of the 55 assembly seats. There are four such candidates who won the last assembly elections but were not given tickets.




At the same time, RLD had also fielded 3 new faces by giving them tickets. Taking a lesson from the defeat, the BSP, which did not open the account last time, has fielded new faces in 54 seats this time. In only one seat, the BSP has given a chance to its old candidate. Ravindra Kumar is contesting on the reserve seat Rampur Maniharan. In the 2017 assembly elections, Ravindra Kumar lost by just 595 votes. There are 11 assembly seats where Muslim candidates of BSP and SP are facing each other. In such a situation, it has to be seen who was heavy on whom in the second phase.



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