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The possibility of a trade war between the EU and the UK

With the mounting tensions over Northern Ireland protocol, the European Union has warned the UK is facing serious consequences due to overstepping and overriding the Northern Ireland protocols. Last November, Simon Coveney, Foreign minister of Ireland, warned that the Trade and Cooperation Agreement would get seriously affected by how the UK observed and manipulated the Protocols. The Trade and Co-operation Agreement holds greater significance for checking tariff-free and quota-free trade between the EU and UK.

Besides the grooming tensions of Northern Ireland protocols, the profound links and relations between UK and EU seem to be influenced by the surging cost of living and the cooperation between the two over the Russia-Ukraine war. Due to the lack of cooperation between the UK and the EU over Ukraine, Mr. Coveney warned that any disappointing action by the UK could spell "a very difficult summer."

Giving a blatant warning to the UK, the EU has claimed that the UK can face the risk of breaching the TCA by the EU if it does not strives to seek an appropriate solution to the mounting tensions over Northern Ireland protocols. Though the actions of breaching the agreement demand notice of up to a year and an arbitration process, the Economists warned that the EU could breach the agreement as it did during the trade dispute with the US.

EU could indirectly affect the UK by focusing its actions on industries located in the Red-wall seats in North-east England and Midlands, which witnessed a shift of power from Labour to the Conservatives in the last election. These are disproportionately dependent on the customs of the bloc.

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